Game Theory · 5 min read
Most market-entry plans focus on customers: who they are, what they want, how to reach them. That matters. But the businesses already in that market will notice you, and their response can decide whether your entry works.
Start with a map of the players
List everyone whose position changes when you arrive: direct competitors, indirect alternatives, suppliers, distributors, partners and regulators. For each, note what they want and what they stand to lose.
Ask what each one can do
A large incumbent can cut prices, lock up distributors or copy your offer. A small specialist may simply ignore you. A supplier might favour existing customers. Focus on the two or three players who can actually hurt you.
Choose an entry the incumbents won’t fight hard
The best entry points are often ones incumbents don’t value much: a customer group they serve poorly, a service they see as too small, or a region outside their focus. Entering there gives you time to build before anyone responds.
Plan your response to their response
For each likely reaction, decide in advance what you will do. If they cut price, do you hold? If they copy your offer, what is your next step? Having these answers ready means you react with a plan, not in a panic.
A Decision Deep-Dive is built to answer exactly this kind of question with evidence.